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Apartment Completions Set to Spike in 2020

August 2019

After five years of elevated delivery volumes, the U.S. apartment market is scheduled to see completions hit an all-time high in 2020, reports RealPage.

The nation has seen crowning delivery volumes throughout much of the past five years. In the past 12 months, roughly 285,000 new apartments were completed across the nation’s 150 largest apartment markets. Though that volume was at a three-year low, down from a previous high point in 2017, deliveries remained sizable compared to long-term norms.

Moving forward, apartment completions are expected to reach historic peaks. More than 526,000 units are under construction across the U.S., and more than 359,000 of those units will deliver within the next 12 months.

The West will see 102,700 units come online during the year-ending Q2 2020, while a little over 37,900 units will wrap up in the Northeast. The Midwest peak is expected to come a little earlier, with nearly 44,400 completing during the year-ending Q1 2020.

While the South is scheduled to see 175,600 units complete during the year-ending Q2 2020, this volume will come in slightly below the recent peak of about 176,600 units delivered in the year-ending Q3 2017.

Of the nation’s 50 largest apartment markets, 33 will see more new supply during the coming 12 months than was delivered over the previous year. Though some of those markets such as Memphis and Virginia Beach will see marginally more new supply by unit count, others will see a considerable difference. The number of markets seeing aggressive levels of new inventory has been increasing throughout this economic cycle.

Markets expected to log the most year-over-year increase in new supply include Houston, Oakland and Los Angeles, which are all scheduled to see completion volumes swell by more than 5,000 units in the coming year.

Several markets will see construction levels remain virtually unchanged during the next 12 months, including Atlanta, Nashville, San Diego, Seattle, Charlotte, Chicago and Anaheim.

Meanwhile, the steepest decreases in construction volumes next year are scheduled in New York-White Plains and Tampa. New York will see about 10,200 units come online during the year-ending Q2 2020, roughly 5,600 fewer units than last year. Tampa is scheduled to see 3,500 units deliver, about 2,000 fewer units than what came online during the past 12 months.